Research

Working Papers

1. “Who’s Afraid of the PRD? Learning about New Parties in Hegemonic Party Systems”
   Abstract

   How do voters in dominant-party systems learn about opposition parties? Electing opposition parties is risky when their governance quality is uncertain, but voters can reduce this uncertainty by observing and learning from neighboring sub-national governments’ experiences with opposition leadership. I examine how opposition governance in neighboring municipalities affects support for opposition candidates in municipal elections in 1990s Mexico. Using a close-election regression discontinuity design, I find that municipalities with exogenous exposure to PRD-governed neighbors increased their support for the PRD by 12-15 percentage points compared to municipalities with PRI-governed neighbors. This effect is specific to the PRD and does not extend to the PAN, a better-known opposition party. These findings provide insight into how governance information spreads across electoral borders and highlight that opposition parties are not necessarily perceived equally in dominant-party systems.

2. “Geographic Representation and Bureaucratic Capacity in the European Commission” Under Review. [Paper]
   Abstract

   International organizations (IOs) must decide between prioritizing qualifications or geographic representation of member states when recruiting staff. Many IOs assume a trade-off between expertise and representation, where the former increases capacity and the latter increases legitimacy. However, this paper provides evidence that geographic representation can enhance bureaucratic information capacity. Using the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs as a case study, I provide evidence that increasing representation of bureaucrats from a member state increases the accuracy of that state's economic forecasts. This effect, which I call "national expertise," decreases as member state representation within the Commission increases and is most pronounced for large economies. These findings highlight that prioritizing geographic balance in IOs may positively impact both legitimacy and capacity.