Research

Working Papers

1. “Who’s Afraid of the PRD? Learning about New Parties in Hegemonic Party Systems
   Abstract

   How do voters in single-party systems learn about opposition parties? Electing opposition parties is risky when governance quality is uncertain, but voters can decrease this uncertainty by observing and learning from neighboring sub-national governments' experience with opposition leadership. I examine the effect of exposure to opposition governance in nearby municipalities on support for opposition candidates in municipal elections in 1990s Mexico. Using a close elections regression discontinuity design, I find that municipalities with exogenous exposure to PRD-governed neighbors supported the PRD by 16 percentage points more than those without. This effect is specific to the PRD and does not extend to the PAN, an older opposition party with established presence in state and large city governments. These findings provide important insight into electoral behavior and information transmission under single-party systems by demonstrating how voters acquire political information through geographic proximity.

2. “Geographic Representation and Bureaucratic Capacity in the European Commission” Under Review. [Paper]
   Abstract

   International organizations (IOs) must decide between prioritizing qualifications or geographic representation of member states when recruiting staff. Many IOs assume a trade-off between expertise and representation, where the former increases capacity and the latter increases legitimacy. However, this paper provides evidence that geographic representation can enhance bureaucratic information capacity. Using the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs as a case study, I provide evidence that increasing representation of bureaucrats from a member state increases the accuracy of that state's economic forecasts. This effect, which I call "national expertise," decreases as member state representation within the Commission increases and is most pronounced for large economies. These findings highlight that prioritizing geographic balance in IOs may positively impact both legitimacy and capacity.